The state of health in Pakistan and its provinces and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding health trends and estimating the burden of disease at the national and subnational levels helps policy makers track progress and identify disparities in overall health performance. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides comprehensive estimates for Pakistan. Comparison of health indicators since 1990 provides valuable insights about Pakistan's ability to strengthen its health-care system, reduce inequalities, improve female and child health outcomes, achieve universal health coverage, and meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We present estimates of the burden of disease, injuries, and risk factors for Pakistan provinces and territories from 1990 to 2019 based on GBD 2019 to improve health and health outcomes in the country. Methods We used methods and data inputs from GBD 2019 to estimate socio-demographic index, total fertility rate, cause-specific deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, healthy life expectancy, and risk factors for 286 causes of death and 369 causes of non-fatal health loss in Pakistan and its four provinces and three territories from 1990 to 2019. To generate estimates for Pakistan at the national and subnational levels, we used 68 location-years of data to estimate Pakistan-specific demographic indicators, 316 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific causes of death, 579 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific non-fatal outcomes, 296 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific risk factors, and 3089 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific covariates. Findings Life expectancy for both sexes in Pakistan increased nationally from 61 center dot 1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 60 center dot 0-62 center dot 1) years in 1990 to 65 center dot 9 (63 center dot 8-67 center dot 8) years in 2019;however, these gains were not uniform across the provinces and federal territories. Pakistan saw a narrowing of the difference in healthy life expectancy between the sexes from 1990 to 2019, as health gains for women occurred at faster rates than for men. For women, life expectancy increased by 8 center dot 2% (95% UI 6middot3-13middot8) between 1990 and 2019, whereas the male life expectancy increased by 7 center dot 6% (3 center dot 5-11 center dot 8). Neonatal disorders, followed by ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections were the leading causes of all-age premature mortality in 2019. Child and maternal malnutrition, air pollution, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, and tobacco consumption were the leading all-age risk factors for death and disability-adjusted life-years at the national level in 2019. Five non-communicable diseases-ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congenital defects, cirrhosis, and chronic kidney disease-were among the ten leading causes of years of life lost in Pakistan. Burden varied by socio-demographic index. Notably, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had the lowest observed gains in life expectancy. Dietary iron deficiency was the leading cause of years lived with disability for both men and women in 1990 and 2019. Low birthweight and short gestation and particulate matter pollution were the leading contributors to overall disease burden in both 1990 and 2019 despite moderate improvements, with a 23 center dot 5% (95% UI 3 center dot 8-39 center dot 2) and 27 center dot 6% (14 center dot 3-38 center dot 6) reduction in age-standardised attributable DALY rates during the study period. Interpretation Our study shows that progress has been made on reducing Pakistan's disease burden since 1990, but geographical, age, and sex disparities persist. Equitable investment in the health system, as well as the prioritisation of high-impact policy interventions and programmes, are needed to save lives and improve health outcomes. Pakistan is facing several domestic and foreign challenges-the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, political turmoil, catastrophic flooding, the COVID-19 pandemic-that will shape the trajectory of the country's health and development. Pakistan must address the burden of infectious disease and curb rising rates of non-communicable diseases. Prioritising these three areas will enhance Pakistan's ability to achieve universal health coverage, meet its Sustainable Development Goals, and improve the overall health outcomes.

Suicidal behavior sociocultural factors in developing countries during COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: Sociocultural factors in the aftermath of any pandemic can play a role in increasing suicidal behavior like suicidal ideation, suicidal attempts, or suicide. The authors discuss the risk and predisposing factors for suicidal ideation among mental health patients in four developing countries (Bangladesh, Colombia, India and Pakistan), this aims to grasp the heterogeneity of these motivators and to elaborate specific interventions regarding suicide in the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Medline, and Google Scholar through March, 2021 for articles using a combination of the keywords and generic terms for suicide, suicide ideation, COVID-19, developing countries, low-middle-income countries, Sociocultural factors, Suicidal behavior, predisposing factors and predictive factors, for articles in English language only, and without publication time restriction. RESULTS: This narrative review summarizes the sociocultural risk and predisposing factors for suicidal behavior in developing countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings reveal those factors such as fear of being infected, growing economic pressure, lack of resources due to lockdown are mostly responsible in the four countries for the current increase in suicides. There are a few cultural differences that are specified in the narrative. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is a public health challenge, in which prevention and intervention of suicidal behavior have been suboptimal, especially in low-middle-income countries. Based on literature results, we provide practical suggestions (e.g., reducing infodemic, specialized helplines, improving mental health services availability) in order to tackle main challenges of suicide prevention, such as lack of adequate manpower, fragile health system and poverty.

The influence of illness perception, anxiety and depression disorders on students mental health during COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan: a Web-based cross-sectional survey

Purpose Since the emergence of a coronavirus disease (2019-nCoV) in December 2019, the whole world is in a state of chaos. Isolation strategy with quarantine is a useful model in controlling transmission and rapid spread. As a result, people remained at home and disrupted their outside daily activities. It led to the closure of educational institutes, which is a source of many students to cope with numerous personal and familial issues. This study aims to focus on exploring the relationships and potential mediational pathways between mental health problems, illness perception, anxiety and depression disorders. Design/methodology/approach The study incorporated snowball sampling techniques through a cross-sectional, Web-based survey and recruited 500 students from different universities of twin cities, Rawalpindi and Islamabad from March 23 to April 15, 2020, during the coronavirus outbreak lockdown. The study used four instruments, Beck Depression Scale, Beck Anxiety Inventory, Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire and The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale for assessing depression, anxiety, illness perception and mental health disorders. Findings The findings indicated normal (43.2%), mild (20.5%), moderate (13.6%) and severe (22.7%) levels of anxiety prevalence in students. Results specified a normal (65.9%), mild (9.10%), moderate (9.12%) and severe (15.90%) depression prevalence and findings stipulated that anxiety disorder prevalence was higher than depression disorder. The correlational results specified a negative and significant relationship between mental health, illness perception, anxiety and depression symptoms. The multiple regression analysis stated that anxiety and depression disorders mediated the relationship between mental health and present illness perception. The perception of illness exhibited a relation to depression and anxiety disorders. Originality/value The study proposed a model to address mental health problems during the lockdown. The (2019-nCoV) illness perception developed mental disorders, including anxiety and depression, which has declined individuals' mental health. There is an urgent need for ongoing clinical examination and management to address psychological disorders and findings suggest assessing mental health to combatting the pandemic worldwide. Findings recommend developing strategies to promote mental health-care facilities during COVID-19 wide-ranging disasters. These results highlight the impending importance of devising strategies to treat mental health problems.